This Sunday, January 26, Lukashenko will appoint himself president of the Republic of Belarus for the seventh time. The only unknown in this whole story is how many percent of the so-called public support will be drawn for the dictator this time. Taking into account the need to create an image of a stable dictatorship, both the turnout and the number of votes for Lukashenko are likely to break records. And although hatred of the regime continues to remain high, we should not expect serious protests at this stage. Most of those who remain in the country are waiting for the better time to rise, and outside the country the diaspora has spent a great deal of effort supporting resistance to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Russian imperialism has united many groups in the region against authoritarianism, but it has also reduced Lukashenko’s relevance on the political agenda. The need to collapse the Kremlin dictatorship is now a key factor in the liberation of Belarus and we will not get tired of repeating this. Putin is the guarantor of the regime’s preservation in Minsk and even the most desperate methods can hardly liberate the region as long as the machine of Russian militarism is spinning. Obviously, many Belarusians have long ago realized this, and the discussion is more about how to overthrow Putin with the relative apathy of Russian society, a significant part of which supports the project of restoring the greatness of the largest country in the world.
In all this history, more than 30 years of Lukashenko’s regime is a logical continuation of the constant enslavement of Belarus and other regions of the former USSR by authoritarian forces. The collapse of colonial states in the 20th century had an impact on the logic of big states, but it did not last long, and the current agenda once again shows the division of “small peoples” between global forces. Ideas of freedom and equality are rarely heard in the political environment anymore, and in their place have come power, honor, stability and security. In the wake of the new authoritarianism, fascist movements are springing up all over the world, pushing their way to power. Decades of liberal democracies and neoliberalist economical policies have not freed the world from the brown plague. Instead, we see Europe and the US gradually falling into the abyss we have lived in for years – empty populist promises to build a strong centralized state.
We can long entertain ourselves with hopes that Belarus will be saved by Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, or maybe by Vyachorka himself or a few hundred Kalinovsky fighters, but the reality is that we will have to free ourselves under the huge weight of indifference from both the West and the East. The struggle against Lukashenko has done enormous damage to our society, just as the struggle against the soviets and the Russian empire did. But this struggle made us capable of resistance in the most dire circumstances. The murders and mass terror of the dictatorship did not stop our desire for freedom. Thousands of prisoners have not broken down in the regime’s colonies and prisons in spite of all the violence that the regime continues to use against prisoners. New generations have already grown up, ready to risk everything in the name of liberation.
Many may despair at the silence surrounding this election, but let’s not fool ourselves and others. On Sunday, Lukashenko will be enjoying himself among people he can never trust. Looking around, he will drink to his victory, knowing perfectly well that this victory means absolutely nothing. The day after the election, Belarusian society will continue to resist, organizing sabotage actions on critical infrastructure, supporting prisoners, fighting in workplaces and universities – our desire for freedom is stronger than any repression and dictators’ and tyrants’ dreams of vast empires and stable regimes. Sooner or later our struggle will free us from the shackles of not only dictatorship, but will be able to show the world how ordinary people without huge resources can determine their future independently of empires.
